The Future of Leadership

An Interview with Art Kleiner

by Mary Stacey

December 2007

Fieldnotes: Art, you had a busy 2007. I crossed paths with you at the Global NeuroLeadership Summit in Italy and the Shambhala Institute in Halifax. You were also at the OD Network Conference, Aspen Institute, and The Academy of Management. In May 2008 you’ll be back at the Shambhala Institute, this time in Ontario, leading a module on “The Future of Leadership.” Why this module at this time?

Kleiner: I’ve been influenced by the culture at strategy+business where I’ve been editor for two and a half years now. This is a far-sighted business publication; it is also very nuts and bolts. Our audience doesn’t have a lot of patience for the froth of leadership and management trends.

I’m fond of Elliot Jacques’ statement that “management today is where medicine was before the discovery of circulation of the blood.” I think many s+b readers see much of what’s going on in management change as an example of “applying leeches” without really being sure that it is going to make a difference. This year it might be coaching, two years ago it was organizational design, and two years before that it was appreciative inquiry. All these different methods have varying degrees of applicability and validity, but nobody reliably can say why they’re effective, when they’re effective, and where they’re effective. There’s no unifying field theory of management. This has led to a healthy amount of skepticism.

At the same time two things have happened. One is that there are now ways of understanding people at work that are more revealing and have more depth than previously was the case. There is a greater understanding that there are significant things going on in organizations that are not necessarily easy to see at the individual level but that colour the direction of the organization. The application of neuroscience in management practice is a developing field that is leading to very interesting insights. Another emerging field is social network analysis—the work of such people as Karen Stephenson and Duncan Watts, who are mathematically analyzing patterns of communication as people share knowledge informally.

A lot of incisive, revealing understanding has been developing, but it is also very fragmented. It’s at a level of sophistication that is greater than we’ve ever had, but it has not yet converged. And I’m intrigued by the challenge of bringing some of it together and make sense of it. This module is an opportunity for that.

There’s also an urgency. The second development is that the importance of leadership has become empirically self-evident. We now have a solid empirical understanding of what happens when the person at the top changes, as when the U.S. presidency changed from Clinton to Bush or when the Canadian leadership changed from Martin to Harper. When the Proctor and Gamble CEO changed from Durk Jager to A. G. Lafley there was reportedly a tremendous change in the whole orientation and profitability of the company. One after another, we see that when the leadership changes the whole place changes.

We just published an article in strategy+business called “A Blueprint for Strategic Leadership.” The basic premise is that when there is a change at the top you can put in place structures that will allow both the leader and the organization to thrive—a succession plan, a great top team, and a clear articulation of purpose. There are also the strategic initiatives that support the direction that the organization is going to take. There may well be other critical factors inside organizations; all these things matter, and the leader who has placed his or her attention on them can move forward in a very effective and powerful way. In the module, we can hopefully put the internal and external factors together and gain a better understanding of the context for leadership in general.

The stakes couldn’t be higher—not just in the political arena but in the corporate arena. Corporations are running out of slack; they’re either managed well or they’re in serious trouble. And that in turn affects their employees, customers, and communities. The problems facing the world—global climate change, other environmental issues, the infrastructure issues, the emerging 1 billion-strong middle class and the 4 billion still in deep poverty, and on and on—will not be solved by individuals. It will require organizations that are led and managed more effectively than most of the organizations we know now. In fact, it will often involve consortia of organizations.

I thought that a module on “The Future of Leadership” would thus be directly relevant to the challenges that people will be bringing to the May program. And, frankly, it’s relevant to some of the challenges facing me in my own position right now, as head of a publishing venture within a much larger management consulting firm. I thought we could ask, “How do we (as individuals) become more effective at marshaling the organization that put us into a position of leadership, and taking it into the future? How can we prepare ourselves, our organizations, and communities to take more effective action—even knowing that there will be uncertainties or ambiguities?”

What I’m looking for is a group of people who are intrigued by the idea that we can get at this stuff in real-world, pragmatic ways. Because we’re using a scenario process, we don’t have to be dogmatic about any particular leadership model; we can put our assumptions on the table and compare them. We can explore the ways in which societies and organizations will evolve and the opportunities and challenges that will face leaders in the next few years.

Fieldnotes: For those who might be learning about scenario planning for the first time, what would you tell them about its value?

Kleiner: Scenario planning is a way of marshalling a group’s thoughts in a structured manner to allow them to focus on a complex situation that is marked by ambiguity. They can come to a better understanding of what actions they might take now that would be robust no matter what’s going to happen in the time ahead.

But you don’t start saying, “What can we do now that’s going to be robust?” because it’s very difficult to pull your imagination in that direction and overlook your own blinders. You start by saying, “What trends do we see, and how do those trends affect the way the future could unfold?”

Once we really understand how the future could unfold, we live in that world for a while and decide what kind of actions would make a difference and move us closer to where we want to be.

I believe the scenario process will be a useful way to engage the question, “What do we know and what are we going to know about leadership for the next 15-20 years?”

Fieldnotes: Your work takes you to the forefront of emerging business trends and you have access to the latest research. This gives you a unique perspective on leadership. Given that, what do you believe is the potential of this event in May?

Kleiner: Last summer I was speaking with Phil Cass, the Chair of the Shambhala Institute’s Governing Council, and we both agreed that the stakes are high now. The stakes are high for leadership. It might take a very intensive and well-designed effort to equip people to become the kinds of leaders that society needs.

This program in Toronto could be one place to develop such an effort. My understanding is that one goal of the May program is to come out the other end different and more capable than you were when you went in. I think the skill of bringing oneself into an organization, a family, or a community and making a difference is very important. We now know that some aspects of leadership can be learned and some are innate. We know that some are embodied in the person, and some in the context. We also know that sustained leadership capability requires reflection. It takes some kind of internal practice and a commitment to growth. It takes de-compartmentalizing your life. I’m probably fairly accomplished at what I do as an editor of a magazine but do I have the leadership quality needed to really help my family grow in the way that it needs to?

I’ve been working with a group of Booz Allen vice presidents and other leaders on a book called Megacommunities, and one of its important messages is that most of today’s problems cannot be solved by the private sector, public sector, or civil sector alone. They all have to work together. We need people who are more practiced, less self-indulgent and able to step up to an enormous amount of stuff. You can’t lead by being in control. You lead by engaging with others—even if you are the head of a big company.

Of course, highly networked organizations will exist in any scenario; just as very structured hierarchies will continue to exist in any plausible future. The question is: Which will become the prevailing form of organization? And that, in turn, depends on a variety of factors: everything from the sources of productivity to the trajectory of race relations. If this exercise is typical, then participants will bring their experiences of actual trends that they are trying to cope with and adapt to. We will explore the future that might occur if these are extended in time, or exaggerated – and try to recognize the kinds of leadership that will be called for as a result.

Fieldnotes: If the stakes are much higher and the context more complex, what would you suggest each one of us pay attention to right now?

Kleiner: I can only speak for myself in answering that question.

I think the answer depends on what I am responsible for. In my case, I have an influential role in an organization, I have certain networks and affiliations and I’m responsible for my reputation and presence in them and for making certain aspects of them work. I’m responsible for my community at large. My wife and I together are responsible to each other and to our children. So there’s a whole patchwork quilt of responsibility—most of which I chose, some of which I didn’t. It sounds like that’s a lot of responsibility. It is, and it’s also my pleasure.

I sometimes think of something a high-profile management consultant told me: “My wife and I don’t want to have children until we can be absolutely sure we could be great parents.” I think many people find themselves in a position where they’re asked to be great parents, great community members, great organizational leaders—and more. And they can’t be great in all those dimensions; they have to choose.

One of the values of a program like the Shambhala Institute’s is that it can help you look inside and recognize all of the places where you need to make connections with what is going on outside. It helps you discover strengths that you might not have known you had. And therefore make the impossible task of achieving greatness slightly more realizable.

Fieldnotes: Is this what’s bringing you back as a faculty member in 2008?

Kleiner: The Shambhala Institute is important and valuable. I always feel privileged to be part of it. On one level, this has to do with the integrated nature of the programs. Combining meditation, arts, and leadership was an inspired idea and remains one. It goes beyond that to the real attention and interest that has gone into community-building. The people who attend are of an enormously high caliber; I always learn a tremendous amount. The module I teach has always been at the leading edge of my own interests, and I’d like to think it represents that for other people as well. It would take a lot for me to say no to an invitation from the Shambhala Institute.

Fieldnotes: Have you had an opportunity to explore what the other faculty will be offering in Ontario?

Kleiner:I know some of these people fairly well. I’ve been involved in Peter Senge’s work on and off for 17 years, and I think what he’s doing now around industrial society and climate change is enormously important. We expect to publish an article by him in the summer issue of strategy+business.

I worked with Michael Jones a bit at Dialogos. It was with regret that I couldn’t work with him more closely. I think he’s a powerhouse individual both as a teacher, certainly as a musician, and as a facilitator. I’ve had a chance to see him at work and I think he’s a rare individual.

I’ve had the privilege of first writing about and then working with Karen Stephenson as a s+b contributor for about 5 years. I try to keep up with what’s happening in social networking, and Karen’s work is clearly among the most rigorous and pragmatic of all the work.

Others, like Barbara Bash, Arawana Hayashi, Toke Møller, and Otto Scharmer, I don’t know as well. But I have had the privilege of talking with and learning from them over the years. I think their ideas (and expression of them) are highly compelling, and I try to pay attention to what they say and do.

Fieldnotes: Thank you, Art. It sounds like your module will be an exciting opportunity to advance the field of leadership while gaining practical insights and tools to take back to all aspects of one’s work and life.

Mary Stacey is the Managing Director of Context Management Consulting in Toronto, Ontario.

Art Kleiner is the editor-in-chief of strategy+business. His book, The Age of Heretics will be re-released by Wiley/Bennis Books in 2008. He is also the author of Who Really Matters (Doubleday, 2003).

Art will lead the module, The Future of Leadership: Scenario Planning and the Changing Nature of Organizations and Communities, at the
Shambhala Institute’s Authentic Leadership in Action program,
May 4-7 at Trent University.